Global oil prices are once again moving upward in the international market, creating fresh concern for governments, businesses, and ordinary people across the world. On Friday, prices of crude oil increased sharply, driven by political tension in the Middle East and supply related problems in Central Asia.

In the international energy market, the price of Brent crude oil, which is considered a global benchmark, rose by 2.8 percent on Friday. After this increase, the price reached 65 dollars and 88 cents per barrel. This is the highest price recorded since January 14. On the same day, the price of West Texas Intermediate, also known as WTI, climbed to 61 dollars and 7 cents per barrel.

Experts believe that the main reason behind this sudden rise is growing uncertainty about oil supply. Former US President Donald Trump recently issued a fresh warning to Iran. He said that Iran would have to face serious consequences if protesters are killed or if the country restarts its nuclear programme. His statement has increased fears of further conflict in the Middle East, a region that plays a very important role in global oil supply.

As pressure on Iran increases, there is growing concern that oil exports from the Middle East could be disrupted. Any disruption in this region immediately affects global oil prices because a large part of the world’s oil comes from here.

According to data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, Iran produces around 3.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. Among OPEC member countries, Iran is the fourth largest crude oil producer after Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. Iran is also a major supplier of crude oil to China, which is the world’s second largest oil consumer.

At the same time, problems are also increasing in Kazakhstan, another important oil producing country. One of the world’s largest oil fields, the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan, has not yet restarted production. Oil company Chevron has confirmed that production at the Tengiz field remains shut down.

Chevron led operator Tengizchevroil had earlier announced the shutdown after a fire broke out at the oil field on Monday. Since then, production has remained suspended, adding more pressure to the already tight global oil supply.

This incident has made the oil industry crisis in Kazakhstan even worse. The country is already facing serious problems in exporting oil through the Black Sea route. There have been repeated delays and obstacles on this route, making it difficult for Kazakhstan to transport its oil smoothly.

In addition to logistical issues, the situation has become more complicated due to drone attacks linked to the Ukraine conflict. These attacks have made oil transportation through the Black Sea region more risky and uncertain. As a result, Kazakhstan is struggling to maintain normal export levels.

Investment bank JP Morgan has reported that nearly half of Kazakhstan’s total oil production comes from the Tengiz oil field alone. However, there are strong chances that this oil field may remain shut for the rest of the current month. If this happens, Kazakhstan’s crude oil production in January could fall sharply to around 1 to 1.1 million barrels per day. Under normal conditions, the country produces around 1.8 million barrels per day.

Earlier this week, oil prices had already gone up due to Donald Trump’s strong stance on Greenland. However, on Thursday, oil prices dropped by nearly 2 percent after he stepped back from threatening tariffs against Europe and ruled out military action. This temporary relief did not last long.

On Friday, prices rose again after Trump’s tough statements regarding Iran, showing how sensitive the oil market is to political developments. It is important to note that global oil markets remain closed on Saturdays and Sundays, so further movement will be seen when trading resumes.

Looking at the bigger picture, global oil prices had reached record highs in 2022 after the Russia Ukraine war began. At that time, crude oil prices had surged up to 139 dollars per barrel. Since then, prices have been gradually declining, but recent developments show that the market is still very unstable.

Oil prices have a very close connection with inflation. When fuel prices rise, the cost of production and transportation also goes up. This directly affects the prices of daily essential goods such as food, vegetables, and household items.

For countries like India that depend heavily on oil imports, higher oil prices also put pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Increased import costs can weaken the national currency and make imports more expensive. As a result, common people feel the impact through higher fuel prices, rising inflation, and increased cost of living.

Experts say that if geopolitical tensions continue and supply disruptions are not resolved soon, oil prices could remain high in the coming weeks. Governments and central banks will closely monitor the situation, as rising energy prices can slow down economic growth and increase financial pressure on households.