‘Numbers fake, wait for sunset’: 5 shocking claims by Mamata as BJP leads in Bengal

# Bengal Polls: Mamata Claims Fake As BJP Leads

By Political Desk, The India Observer, May 04, 2026

**Kolkata:** In an unprecedented political upheaval on counting day for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly Elections, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has categorically rejected early electoral trends showing a sweeping victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). As of 1:00 PM on May 4, 2026, Election Commission data indicates the BJP leading in a staggering 181 seats, while the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) trails with just 90 seats. Addressing a hastily convened press briefing from her Kalighat residence, a defiant Banerjee labeled the numbers as “manufactured,” famously declaring, “Numbers fake, wait for sunset,” while leveling five shocking allegations of electoral subversion against the opposition and central agencies.

## The Early Numbers: A Saffron Tsunami in Bengal

The initial trends, which began trickling in at 8:00 AM, rapidly consolidated into a massive lead for the BJP, overturning decades of established political arithmetic in the state. Out of the 294 seats in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly, the majority mark stands at 148. If the current trends of 181 seats for the BJP and 90 for the TMC hold true, it would represent not just a change in government, but a tectonic shift in eastern Indian politics [Source: Hindustan Times | Additional: Election Commission of India early counting data].

The Left Front and Congress alliance, attempting a resurgence, appears decimated once again, leading in a mere 23 seats combined. This polarization of votes indicates a direct, high-stakes battle where anti-incumbency votes consolidated entirely behind the BJP. The saffron party’s performance is particularly dominant in North Bengal, the tribal-dominated Jangalmahal belt, and surprisingly, several urban constituencies in and around the Greater Kolkata region, which have historically been TMC bastions.

For a party that secured 215 seats in the 2021 assembly elections, limiting the BJP to 77, the TMC’s current tally of 90 is a severe contraction. Analysts point to a cumulative effect of consecutive local corruption scandals, anti-incumbency after 15 years of rule, and a highly mobilized BJP grassroots machinery. However, the TMC supremo refuses to concede the narrative.

## “Wait For Sunset”: Mamata’s Five Shocking Claims

Refusing to accept the emerging mandate, Mamata Banerjee unleashed a fierce counter-attack against the BJP, the Election Commission (EC), and central forces. Her declaration, “Numbers fake, wait for sunset,” has become the immediate flashpoint of the day. During her address, she made five highly controversial claims regarding the counting process:

**1. Early Trends are Media-Manufactured:**
Banerjee alleged that the early leads broadcasted by national media outlets were part of a psychological operation orchestrated by the BJP to demoralize TMC counting agents. She claimed the numbers did not reflect the actual Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) data being processed by returning officers on the ground.

**2. EVM Tampering in Saffron “Strongholds”:**
Repeating a historical grievance, the Chief Minister claimed that EVMs in over 80 constituencies—particularly in North Bengal and the Matua-dominated districts of Nadia and North 24 Parganas—had been tampered with or replaced entirely during the multi-phase voting process.

**3. Central Forces Intimidation of Polling Agents:**
Banerjee shockingly claimed that Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) personnel, deployed to ensure peaceful counting, were actively barring TMC agents from entering counting centers in critical swing constituencies. She stated that complaints submitted to the State Election Commission had been systematically ignored.

**4. Intentional Delay in TMC Bastions:**
The core of her “wait for sunset” comment stems from her fourth claim: that counting in rural, heavily populated constituencies where the TMC enjoys overwhelming support (particularly in South 24 Parganas and Murshidabad) was being deliberately slowed down. She theorized that once these boxes open late in the evening, the TMC would easily cross the 150-mark.

**5. Rejection of Postal Ballots:**
Lastly, Banerjee alleged a coordinated conspiracy by returning officers to invalidate thousands of postal ballots cast by state government employees, a demographic she claims heavily favors the incumbent government due to recent dearness allowance (DA) hikes.

## Trinamool Congress in Disbelief: The View from Nabanna

The atmosphere inside the TMC camp is one of palpable shock and disbelief. Senior party leaders, who had confidently predicted a comfortable fourth term, are now scrambling to gather localized data to substantiate their leader’s claims.

“We are tracking the internal data provided by our booth agents, and it completely contradicts the televised trends,” stated a senior TMC general secretary, requesting anonymity. “In seats where we expected a margin of over 20,000 votes, the Election Commission website shows us trailing by 5,000. It defies political logic. Didi (Mamata) is absolutely right; we will not accept these figures until the final certificate is handed over.”

Despite the outward defiance, political observers note a distinct lack of celebratory preparations at the TMC headquarters on EM Bypass. The usual crowds of green-clad supporters, traditional drummers (*dhakis*), and vats of green powder (*abir*) are starkly missing, replaced by heavy police deployment and anxious silence.

## How the BJP Breached the Fortress

If the current numbers translate into final results, the BJP’s projected victory will be studied as a masterclass in sustained opposition strategy. Following their defeat in 2021, the BJP faced internal factionalism and an exodus of cadre. However, the structural groundwork laid over the subsequent five years appears to have yielded massive dividends.

Several converging factors contributed to this electoral reversal. First, the widespread anti-incumbency fueled by multiple scams—from the school recruitment irregularities to municipal corruption cases that dominated headlines between 2023 and 2025. The BJP successfully weaponized these issues, pushing a narrative of systemic institutional decay under the TMC.

Furthermore, the demographic strategy of the BJP has proven highly effective. While the TMC relied heavily on its flagship welfare schemes like *Lakshmir Bhandar* to retain women voters, the BJP countered with the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) rules, consolidating the critical Namasudra and Matua votes in the border districts. Additionally, a perceived consolidation of the Hindu vote bank, in response to localized socio-religious tensions, has heavily favored the saffron party.

## Expert Perspectives on the Electoral Shift

Political analysts suggest that while Mamata Banerjee’s claims are a predictable defensive strategy, the sheer scale of the BJP’s lead makes a dramatic reversal unlikely.

“Mamata Banerjee is a quintessential street fighter, and her ‘wait for sunset’ remark is designed to keep her cadre energized and prevent them from abandoning the counting halls,” explains Dr. Anirban Chatterjee, a Kolkata-based political scientist and author. “However, historically, when a party crosses the 170-seat mark in trends, the structural mandate is clear. The gap of 91 seats between the BJP and TMC is too wide to be bridged purely by late rural counting.”

Dr. Sumita Ray, an election data analyst, points to the underlying vote share shifts. “What we are witnessing is not just an anti-TMC wave, but a pro-BJP consolidation. In 2021, the TMC survived because the Left-Congress votes shifted entirely to them to stop the BJP. In 2026, it appears that the dissatisfied swing voters have completely aligned with the BJP, viewing them as the only viable alternative. Regarding EVM tampering claims, the Election Commission’s robust VVPAT matching protocols make systemic manipulation practically impossible.”

## Election Commission’s Stance and National Implications

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has firmly rejected the allegations made by the West Bengal Chief Minister. In a brief statement issued from New Delhi, an ECI spokesperson emphasized the transparency of the counting process, noting that counting is conducted in the presence of authorized agents from all political parties under continuous CCTV surveillance.

“The integrity of the EVMs and the counting process is absolute. Any claims of deliberate delays or manipulation are entirely baseless and devoid of factual backing,” the EC statement read, urging political leaders to respect the democratic mandate. [Source: Historical ECI protocol responses | Hindustan Times].

The implications of a BJP government in West Bengal extend far beyond the state’s borders. For the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), capturing Bengal represents the realization of a decades-long ideological dream, effectively expanding their footprint into the Eastern corridor. It provides massive momentum for the BJP’s national narrative of pan-Indian acceptance.

Conversely, for the national opposition bloc, the potential fall of the TMC government is a devastating blow. Mamata Banerjee has been one of the most vocal and powerful regional satraps standing against the BJP machinery. Her defeat would significantly weaken the federal opposition’s bargaining power and structural unity on the national stage.

## Conclusion: A Historic Evening Awaits Bengal

As the sun begins its descent over the Hooghly River, West Bengal stands on a political knife-edge. While the numbers heavily favor a historic transition of power to the BJP, Mamata Banerjee’s refusal to concede ensures that the final declaration of results will be a tense, highly scrutinized affair.

Whether her “wait for sunset” prediction materializes into a miraculous late-stage comeback or fades into the rhetoric of a defeated incumbent will be determined in the coming hours. Regardless of the final tally, the 2026 Bengal Assembly Elections have already cemented themselves as one of the most fiercely contested and controversial political battles in India’s modern electoral history. The nation now watches with bated breath as the final EVMs are unsealed, ready to witness either the dawn of a saffron era in Bengal or the most astonishing political comeback of the decade.